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HIV did not enter and integrate into the host
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Viral-entry analysis on Ect1 cells. HOS.CD4.R5 HOS.CD4.X4 or Ect1 cell monolayers were exposed to 50 ng/mL p24 (or p27 for SIV) of luciferase reporter virus overnight in 300 μL of culture medium containing 1 ng/mL polybrene. The culture was then replaced with 1 mL of fresh medium and was cultured for up to 7 days. Luciferase activity was measured in 100-μL cell lysates by use of commercial reagents. Each data point represents mean of duplicate wells. Viral replication was inhibited by zidovudine (AZT) at 1 μmol/L 10 μmol/L or no-AZT control Polymerase chain reaction amplification of proviral DNA. Cells were exposed to 100 ng/mL p24 of RF virus, and total genomic DNA was isolated 6 days after infection. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sequence was amplified by use of primer pairs SK38/39, was analyzed on 1% agarose gel electrophoresis, and was detected by ethidium bromide staining. DNA marker; infected H9 cells; uninfected H9 cells; infected Ect1 cells; and uninfected Ect1 cells. A-MuLV, amphotropic murine leukeamic virus envelope. Relative light units of ∼100 were considered as background noise

Figure 3
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Viral-entry analysis on Ect1 cells. HOS.CD4.R5 HOS.CD4.X4 or Ect1 cell monolayers were exposed to 50 ng/mL p24 (or p27 for SIV) of luciferase reporter virus overnight in 300 μL of culture medium containing 1 ng/mL polybrene. The culture was then replaced with 1 mL of fresh medium and was cultured for up to 7 days. Luciferase activity was measured in 100-μL cell lysates by use of commercial reagents. Each data point represents mean of duplicate wells. Viral replication was inhibited by zidovudine (AZT) at 1 μmol/L 10 μmol/L or no-AZT control Polymerase chain reaction amplification of proviral DNA. Cells were exposed to 100 ng/mL p24 of RF virus, and total genomic DNA was isolated 6 days after infection. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) sequence was amplified by use of primer pairs SK38/39, was analyzed on 1% agarose gel electrophoresis, and was detected by ethidium bromide staining. DNA marker; infected H9 cells; uninfected H9 cells; infected Ect1 cells; and uninfected Ect1 cells. A-MuLV, amphotropic murine leukeamic virus envelope. Relative light units of ∼100 were considered as background noise

PCR analysis of total cellular DNA purified from HIV-exposed Ect1 cells also failed to detect proviral DNA. The primer pairs used were SK38/39 derived from a highly conserved gag sequence and amplify a 115-bp sequence in the HIV-1 gag region. A similar fragment was detected in the HIV-1–infected H9 cells but was absent from uninfected H9 and Ect1 cells. The result was consistent with that of the pseudovirus study and confirmed that HIV did not integrate into the Ect1 genome

A metric that changes based on similar inputs is unreliable. We don’t want to make important decisions about our business based on a metric that changes this much.

Stephen Noble at Shopify proposes a better solution (our example is adapted from his post). Think of churn rate as a probability - how many customers churned, and how many opportunities did they have to churn?

Every day that a customer keeps her subscription is another day when she didn’t churn. If she is your customer for seven days and churned on the seventh day, she had seven opportunities to churn, and exercised that option on one of the seven days. Another way to think about this is that she churned on 1/7 of the days that she could have churned.

We can aggregate that probability across all of our customers and come up with a more accurate churn rate. It requires that we calculate the total number of customer days in the month.

A customer day is one day that one customer had an active subscription. We count the number of days in July that each customer had an active subscription, then sum that number across the entire business.

customer day

Let’s go back to our fictional company, Butter of the Month:

To calculate churn rate, we start with the number of customer churns in July, same as before. Then, we divide by the total number of customer days in July. The result is churns per customer day.

Churns per customer day is a little difficult to unpack, so we multiply by the number of days in the month, 31. The result is a churn rate of 5.1%.

Where does the 0.5 in “Customer days in month” come from? For Butter of the Month, I’m assuming that the new subscriptions and churns occur at a constant rate throughout the month. In other words, the net gain of customers is linear. With that assumption (and the formula for the area of a triangle), we calculate the number of customer days:

Another way to think about the 0.5 in this formula is that the new customers and the churned customers are active half the month on average.

Remember that this assumption is just for our fictional company. For Recurly’s dashboard (coming soon), we calculate customer days by summing the actual number of subscribers that were active on each day.

So, how does this formula hold up in August?

As you can see, the churn rates for July and August are now in line. Same behavior, same result.

It’s true that this churn rate definition is more complex than the basic definition. But we believe it forms a better basis of comparison between different time periods. And, ultimately, it gives you a better picture of your monthly subscriber churn.

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August 22, 2014
by Devin Brady
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